The US–Israel–Iran war is expected to affect coffee shipping and exports worldwide, and therefore global coffee prices. Exactly what the impact will be is uncertain. The risk is not limited to shipping disruptions. Coffee production is energy-intensive, relying on fuel for transportation, electricity for processing, and especially synthetic fertilizers whose production depends heavily on energy.
I recently bought a significant amount of coffee after prices pulled back from earlier highs during the tariff drama. The C-market price for commodity coffee—which serves as the benchmark for most coffee pricing—has not risen dramatically since the conflict began. Over the past twelve months the market reached a high of $4.13 per pound on November 16. It is currently about $2.85 per pound, and the highest price since the conflict began was $3.01 per pound on March 8. These figures reflect commodity-grade coffee; specialty coffee typically trades at a premium above the C-market.
For now, coffee prices at Oil Slick Coffee are expected to remain stable for at least the next four weeks. At the current consumption rate, I have more than two months of supply across all coffees. Because of that, I am attempting to wait out the situation rather than raise prices in anticipation of higher replacement costs.
I am also looking for one or two new coffees to add to the lineup, but I plan to be conservative. With adequate inventory on hand, there is no need to pay a market risk premium at this time.
My goal remains the same: to provide approachable, affordable, quality coffee.